For the last two months I have told people to update and modify their resumes to get work in supply chains. The enormity of soaring unemployment will hit home in the next six months. The story below is from the ABC and can be found here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/grattan-report-on-coronavirus-unemployment-projections/12161328.

Key points:

• A Grattan Institute report analysed how many jobs in Australia relied on working in close proximity to others
• It found that up to 3.4 million people will be out of work as a result of government shutdowns and physical distancing rules
• It also found workers who earn less and younger workers would be disproportionately affected

The Grattan Institute has crunched the numbers on the unemployment fallout we can expect from the coronavirus pandemic by analysing how many Australians’ jobs rely on working in close physical proximity to others. Researcher Brendan Coates said the institute’s analysis found between 14 and 26 per cent of the entire Australian workforce would lose their job, if they had not already, as a result of government shutdowns and physical-distancing rules.

This week, Federal Treasury forecast unemployment would rise to 10 per cent in the June quarter — a figure which hasn’t reached double digits since 1994.

The Grattan Institute figures were higher because they included people who were expected to fall out of the job market altogether while the Treasury figures included people who would still be employed under the JobKeeper program.

Unsurprisingly, the report found hospitality workers would be the hardest hit, with about 60 per cent of jobs lost across the industry. Arts and recreation were also greatly affected, with more than 50 per cent of jobs lost.

Mr Coates said the effects of the response to the pandemic would not be felt evenly, with many higher-paying jobs able to be performed remotely, or from home.

“Lower-income workers are twice as likely to be affected by the crisis as higher-income workers because they tend to work in the kinds of industries that require close physical contact and therefore they’re likely to be out of work at the moment,” he said.

The report found more than 40 per cent of workers aged 15 to 19 would be out of work, and about 30 per cent of workers in their 20s, and 25 per cent of those in their 40s.

The report only looked at jobs lost due to the mandated shutdowns and physical distancing rules. Mr Coates warned the economic prospects were likely to get worse.

“While there’s a lot that’s uncertain, you would expect that the second-round impacts are going to be very severe,” he said.

“So we know that in periods where unemployment has risen in the past, it’s taken a lot longer to fall and I’d anticipate that this crisis, even though at its heart it is a public health-engineered recession, it’s going to be similar.”